Start Here: How to Read Player Props on CGPropz
New to player props? This page gets you from zero to your first informed pick in about ten minutes. You'll learn what a board row tells you, how CG Score and hit rates work, what PrizePicks goblins, demons, Power Plays and Flex Plays mean, and which terms you'll see on every page. Keep the glossary at the bottom open in a tab.
Quick links
- Today's free top 3 →: three free props from today's board, on the homepage. (The NFL free preview is off right now.)
- Highest hit rate today: open a sport board and sort by the L10 hit-rate pill: KBO · NFL · WNBA · NBA · NHL
- How CG Score works →
- Boards by sport: KBO · NFL · WNBA · NBA · NHL
- All-Access plans →
Your first pick in 10 minutes
Minute 0 to 1: Pick a sport with games today. Open the board for a sport on today's slate. If you're not sure, start with today's free top 3 on the homepage, or sort a board by the L10 hit-rate pill.
Minute 1 to 3: Read one row slowly. Use the example in the next section. Find the line, the projection, the CG Score and the hit rates. Say out loud which side the model leans and why.
Minute 3 to 5: Check the context. Open the player card. Look at the game log, the matchup (defense vs. position), and how many games the hit rates are based on. Check the latest injury and lineup news for both teams.
Minute 5 to 7: Compare the line. Open your pick'em app and find the same player and stat. Is the line the same as on the board? If it moved, the CG Score on the board no longer matches what you'd be picking. Recalculate or skip it.
Minute 7 to 9: Decide the size before the pick. Set a budget for the day first. Start small while you learn. Choose a lineup type you understand (see Power vs Flex below).
Minute 9 to 10: Make the pick, then log it. Write down the player, stat, line, side, CG Score and why you picked it. Reviewing your own picks later teaches you more than any single result.
Passing is a valid outcome. If the line moved, the news changed, or the sample is tiny, skip it.
How to read a board row
Example only. The player and every number below are made up to show the layout. This is not a real prop.
| Player | Stat | Line | Side | Projection | CG Score | L5 | L10 | Season | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sample Player (Team A) | Points | 18.5 | Over | 21.0 | 56.8 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 20 of 34 | Soft matchup |
What each column tells you:
- Line (18.5): the number posted by the pick'em app or sportsbook.
- Side (Over): the direction the model leans, because the projection is above the line.
- Projection (21.0): what the CGPropz model expects the player to score.
- CG Score (56.8): projection ÷ line × 50, so 21.0 ÷ 18.5 × 50. Above 50 means the projection is over the line.
- L5 / L10 / Season: how many games in each window the player cleared 18.5. Read the count, not only the percentage.
- DVP: how the opponent has defended this position, as context for the matchup.
How to read it: the model sits a little over the line. Recent form is mixed, and the season count is a larger sample than L5. A reasonable next step is to check minutes and news before deciding, not to treat the score as the answer.
What CG Score is (and isn't)
CG Score shows how far the CGPropz projection sits from the line. The core method is:
CG Score = (projection ÷ line) × 50
- 50: projection equals the line. That always holds on NHL; on WNBA and NFL it holds when the line is at or above the stat's minimum. KBO may show a stored score on a different basis.
- Above 50: projection is over the line. Further above means a bigger gap.
- Below 50: projection is under the line. Further below means a bigger gap.
How it varies by sport:
- NHL: projection ÷ line × 50.
- WNBA: projection ÷ the larger of the prop's own line or a minimum line for that stat, × 50. Minimums keep very low lines from producing extreme scores (points, for example, uses 4.5).
- NFL: projection ÷ the larger of the line or a minimum line for that prop type, × 50.
- All sports: yardage lines of 0.5 or lower aren't scored.
- KBO: the stored KBO score when one exists, otherwise projection (or season average) ÷ line × 50.
On WNBA and NFL, when a line is below its minimum, a score of 50 means the projection equals the minimum, not the line. Full minimum lists are in the CG Score guide.
About the free top 3: on NHL and WNBA it's the top three props on the full board by CG Score. KBO's free top 3 is chosen on the server and does not follow the site formula. NFL has no free top 3 right now.
The board treats a prop as an over when the projection is at or above the line.
What it doesn't mean: CG Score is not a win probability, and a higher score does not mean a prop is more likely to hit. It tells you where the model and the line disagree most. Your job is to find out why. A very small line can also make a modest projection look like a huge score, so double-check extreme values.
Full guide: How CG Score works →
Projections and hit rates
Projection: the model's estimate of a player's stat for today's game, built from recent form, the matchup and the posted line. It's an estimate, not a forecast you can count on.
Hit rate: how often a player cleared today's line over a set of past games. It's always tied to the line. The same player can have a high hit rate at one line and a low one at another.
| Window | What it covers | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| L5 | Last five games | Most current form. Smallest sample, so it swings the most. |
| L10 | Last ten games | A balance of recent and stable. A common default sort. |
| Season | Every game this season | Largest sample. Slower to reflect role changes. |
Some boards also show H2H (games against today's opponent), usually the smallest sample of all.
Three rules for reading hit rates:
- Count beats percentage. "4 of 5" and "8 of 10" are both 80%, but the second is based on twice the games.
- Ask what changed. A new role, an injury to a teammate, or a minutes limit can make old games a poor guide.
- Use more than one window. When L5, L10 and season disagree, find out why before picking.
PrizePicks basics: More/Less, goblins and demons
On PrizePicks, a player pick asks one question: will the player go More or Less than the posted projection? A lineup combines several of these picks, and PrizePicks' rules require picks from players on at least two different teams.
Goblins (green icon): an easier version of a projection. Goblins are easier to hit than the standard projection but pay less.
Demons (red icon): a harder version of a projection. Demons are harder to hit but raise the potential payout.
Key points from PrizePicks' own pages:
- The icon sets the difficulty; More or Less sets the direction. On select projections you can pick either More or Less on a goblin or demon. A Less pick isn't automatically a goblin, and a More pick isn't automatically a demon.
- You can mix them. A lineup can combine goblins, demons and standard projections.
- Promotions may not apply. Some promotions exclude goblins and demons. Check each promotion's terms.
How this connects to CGPropz: the board compares the projection with the line it lists. A goblin or demon line is a different number from the standard line, so recalculate the gap against the line you're actually picking. The NHL and WNBA boards show demon and goblin lines alongside standard lines, each scored against its own line.
PrizePicks Power Play vs Flex Play
Once you've picked your players, PrizePicks asks how you want the lineup scored:
- Power Play: every pick in the lineup must be correct to win. In exchange, it carries the higher payout for a given lineup size.
- Flex Play: the lineup can still pay out if you miss one or two picks, depending on lineup size. In exchange, the top payout is lower than a Power Play of the same size. PrizePicks now offers Flex on two-pick lineups too, where one correct pick returns part of the entry.
Lineups run from two to six picks, and adding picks raises the potential payout. If a player in your lineup doesn't play, PrizePicks may re-grade the lineup at a smaller size under its rules.
Payouts change. PrizePicks says the payout for a specific lineup is the one shown on your lineup screen before you submit. Always check it there. We don't list multipliers on this page because they vary by lineup, picks and promotion.
Which to choose as a beginner: if you're still learning, a Flex Play softens the impact of a single miss, and a smaller lineup is easier to evaluate afterward. Either way, a lineup is only as good as the picks in it.
Underdog and other pick'em apps use similar ideas under different names and rules. Check each app's own help pages.
Get the full board
The free top 3 on the homepage shows three props a day in each sport with a free preview. All-Access opens the full board for KBO, NFL, WNBA, NBA and NHL under one login: every graded prop with projections, CG Scores, L5/L10/season and head-to-head hit rates, defense vs. position, player game logs and the slip builder.
Compare All-Access plans →
Glossary
- All-Access: CGPropz's paid plan with every sport's full board.
- Board: the list of today's props for a sport, with projections, scores and hit rates.
- CG Score: how far the CGPropz projection sits from the line. Core method: projection ÷ line × 50, with per-sport adjustments (see above). 50 means they're equal on NHL, and on WNBA and NFL when the line is at or above the stat's minimum. KBO may show a stored score on a different basis.
- Demon: on PrizePicks, a harder projection (red icon) with a higher potential payout.
- DNP: "did not play." Picks on players who don't play are handled under each app's rules.
- DVP (defense vs. position): how an opponent has defended a given position, used as matchup context.
- Edge: the gap between a projection and a line. On CGPropz, CG Score expresses it.
- Flex Play: a PrizePicks lineup type that can still pay out with one or two misses, with a lower top payout.
- Free top 3: three free props per sport from today's board, shown on the homepage. (NFL's free preview is off right now.)
- Game log: a player's game-by-game stats.
- Goblin: on PrizePicks, an easier projection (green icon) with a lower payout.
- H2H (head-to-head): a hit rate against today's opponent only.
- Hit rate: how often a player cleared today's line over a set of past games.
- L5 / L10: hit rate over the last five or last ten games.
- Line: the number posted by the pick'em app or sportsbook, for example 18.5 points.
- Lineup (slip): a set of picks submitted together.
- More / Less (Over / Under): the direction of a pick relative to the line.
- Pick'em: fantasy-style contests where you pick More or Less on player stats.
- Power Play: a PrizePicks lineup type where every pick must be correct, with the higher payout.
- Projection: the model's estimate of a player's stat for today's game.
- Push: the result lands exactly on the line. Handling depends on the app's rules.
- Sample size: how many games a hit rate is based on. Smaller samples swing more.
- Season hit rate: hit rate over every game this season.
- Slate: all of today's games for a sport.
FAQ
How do I read player props?
Start with the line and the side, then compare the projection with the line. Check the CG Score, the hit rates and how many games they're based on, then confirm the latest news and the current line in your app.
What is a hit rate in player props?
How often a player cleared today's line over a set of past games, such as the last five, the last ten or the season. Read it with the number of games it covers.
What do goblin and demon mean on PrizePicks?
A goblin (green icon) is an easier projection with a lower payout. A demon (red icon) is a harder projection with a higher potential payout. More or Less still sets the direction of the pick.
What is the difference between Power and Flex on PrizePicks?
In a Power Play every pick must be correct, and the payout is higher. A Flex Play can still pay out with one or two misses, with a lower top payout. Check the exact payout on your lineup screen before you submit.
Does a higher CG Score mean a pick is more likely to hit?
No. CG Score shows how far the projection sits from the line. It is not a probability. Use it to find props worth a closer look.
Is CGPropz affiliated with PrizePicks or Underdog?
No. CGPropz is an independent data and analysis site and is not affiliated with PrizePicks or Underdog.
Play responsibly. 21+ only. Pick'em contests carry financial risk, and no projection or score can promise a result. Set a budget and keep to it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
CGPropz is not affiliated with or endorsed by PrizePicks or Underdog.